Electricity Demand· Premium
UK Electricity Demand to 2035
Long-range demand model covering electrification of heat, transport, industry and AI compute, benchmarked against ESO FES.
Published 5 Feb 202678 pagesVersion v1.1
Executive summary
What this report covers
Total UK electricity demand rises from 285 TWh today to 470–560 TWh by 2035 under our central case. AI is a meaningful but not dominant driver — electrification of heat and transport contribute more.
Key findings
Headline conclusions
- Central case: 470–560 TWh by 2035 (up from 285 TWh in 2024).
- Heat pumps add 55–90 TWh depending on rollout speed.
- EV adoption adds 45–70 TWh.
- AI and data centres add 20–35 TWh.
Who should read this
Intended audience
- Utility strategy teams
- Regulators and independent system operators
- Long-term infrastructure investors
Table of contents
Inside the 78-page report
- 011. Baseline demand decomposition
- 022. Heat pump adoption trajectories
- 033. EV charging demand
- 044. Industrial electrification
- 055. AI and data centres
- 066. Combined scenarios
Preview
Sample pages
Frequently asked questions
Does this align with ESO FES?+
Yes — we benchmark against FES 2025 and identify where our assumptions diverge (documented in Section 6).
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